The Death of Prigozhin.

Yesterday, a private jet traveling from Moscow to St. Petersburg carrying Wagner PMC leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and several of his henchmen plummeted to earth outside of the village of Kuzenhiino in Russia’s Tver region. According to a report by the AP, an early assessment by the U.S. intelligence community suggests that the plane crash was caused by an explosive device on board the plane. Despite this, a report in the New York Times suggests that it is too early to know for sure what happened; Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, indicates that it will be challenging to gain a complete picture of what happened due to the reliability of any information released by the Russian government. It is assumed that President Putin was behind the crash, more likely as retaliation for Prigozhin’s aborted coup attempt in June. It was only a matter of time before Prigozhin would meet an untimely demise; one doesn’t attempt a coup against Putin and usually lives to tell the tale. In the last few hours, an article by The Guardian reports that Putin has acknowledged Prigozhin’s death by saying he was a “talented businessman” but made some “serious mistakes.”

Another fascinating aspect of this incident is who else was onboard the plane with Prigozhin. According to an article by The Washington Post, Dmitry Utkin, who was Prigozhin’s second in command, also died. According to various reports, Wagner was so named because of Utkin’s love of the German composer Richard Wagner, a favorite of Hitler. Also on board were several other high-ranking Wagner officials who maintained close ties to Prigozhin. We may never know how exactly this plane came down, but if I were Sergey Surovikin, a close friend of Prigozhin, I would make sure my passport was up to date.

Putin vs. Prigozhin: a Struggle For Power In Russia.

This past weekend, the ongoing conflict involving Ukraine and Russia took an unexpected turn. Yevgeny Prigozhin accused President Putin of attacking members of his Wagner paramilitary group. It is well known that relations between the Russian army and Wagner are not cordial. On Friday night, rumors of serious unrest between the two parties emerged. On Saturday morning, numerous reports of Wagner forces streaming toward Moscow, seemingly to confront the high command. Barricades were erected to try and prevent any possibility of a coup. As all of this transpired, the Russian government announced that legal proceedings were being filed against him. Then, suddenly his forces turned back towards Rostov, and it was announced that he would be exiled to Belarus and any charges against him would be dropped.

According to an article from today’s New York Times, Prigozhin stated in a rambling audio message that the motivation for the protest was not to overthrow Putin’s government. It was instead a response to a move by the Russian army to force Wagner fighters to be co-opted into the regular army. Nonetheless, Prigozhin’s actions severely threatened Putin’s legitimacy as president. An article from The Guardian adds that Putin is weaker than he has ever been and that aligning himself with Wagner is proving to be a mistake that could lead to him being deposed as leader. Another critical component is how this impacts the fighting in Ukraine; according to another article by the New York Times, there is hope among the Ukrainian military that the current internal strife within Russia could lead to gains on the battlefield. It is an ongoing and complex story that could go in many directions and lead to many globally significant events.

The Wagner Group Sanctioned: Putin’s Corrupt Paramilitary

Recently, a mysterious paramilitary group called the Wagner Group, run by a crony of President Putin, has been in the news. Wagner is run by a man named Yevgeny Prigozhin, who, earlier in his life, was in prison after committing a series of robberies in the early 80s. According to an article in The Guardian, Prigozhin excelled in the free-wheeling culture in St Petersburg in the early 1990s. He quickly moved from selling hot dogs to buying up stakes in supermarkets and a liquor store. Eventually, he started managing a restaurant called the Old Customs House, where he made meaningful political connections.

Not long after, Prigozhin started to get involved in military-related issues due to being awarded catering contracts for the army. Shortly afterwards, according to the article in The Guardian, he asked the Russian Ministry of Defense for a parcel of land to train “volunteers” that would have no links to the regular Russian army. The organization quickly became Putin’s go-to option for any off-the-books military operations and gained a bloody reputation in Syria. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Wagner has taken a more prominent role within the Russian military. On January 20th, Wagner was sanctioned by the U.S. government as a transnational criminal organization. According to an article in the AP, Wagner allegedly spends over $100 million monthly on the war in Ukraine. It is not clear from the article where precisely this money comes from, but it is a safe assumption that it comes from the Russian state. If the West is to aid Ukraine, limiting the ability of people or entities wishing to provide material support to the Wagner group will be essential.